Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260209 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 52.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 11.7 11.5 14.3 18.9 16.7 20.8 17.5 F F F F N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 48.0 47.0 42.0 37.7 63.0 48.0 49.0 N N N N U N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 14.0 34.0 35.0 51.0 15.0 14.0 24.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 48.0 51.0 VU VU U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 1.0 9.0 12.0 -4.0 12.0 7.0 N N N U U F U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 74.6% 64.7% 69.7% 25kt / 24h 87.9% 92.1% 90.0% 30kt / 24h 87.9% 92.1% 90.0% 35kt / 24h 87.9% 92.1% 90.0% 40kt / 24h 87.9% 92.1% 90.0% 45kt / 36h 59.1% 77.3% 68.2% 55kt / 36h 40.4% 67.6% 54.0% 55kt / 48h 43.3% 60.5% 51.9% 70kt / 48h 23.6% 37.0% 30.3% 65kt / 72h 23.0% 28.8% 25.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 SH212026 260209 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 52.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 11.7 11.5 14.3 18.9 16.7 20.8 17.5 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 51.0 48.0 51.0 VF VF F F VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 1.0 9.0 12.0 -4.0 12.0 7.0 N N N F F U F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%