Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  14.3  14.6  17.6  16.6  17.9  23.0  26.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  47.0  43.0  32.0  54.7  55.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -8.0 -29.0 -32.0  39.0  51.0  29.0  25.0  U  U VU VU  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  55.0  50.0  56.0  56.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -0.0   8.0   6.0  -5.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.5%       42.2%       55.3%
 25kt / 24h       59.1%       62.7%       60.9%
 30kt / 24h       59.1%       62.7%       60.9%
 35kt / 24h       59.1%       62.7%       60.9%
 40kt / 24h       59.1%       62.7%       60.9%
 45kt / 36h       58.3%       45.0%       51.6%
 55kt / 36h       27.6%       30.3%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       36.9%       19.2%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 SH212026 260210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     52.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  14.3  14.6  17.6  16.6  17.9  23.0  26.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  55.0  50.0  56.0  56.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -0.0   8.0   6.0  -5.0   5.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%