Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  18.1  17.3  18.5  16.0  24.7  25.2  24.3  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  37.0  21.0  34.7  62.0  49.0  49.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  45.0  31.0  41.0  29.0  11.0  19.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  12.0   2.0  -4.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.8%       37.0%       51.4%
 25kt / 24h       48.8%       52.8%       50.8%
 30kt / 24h       47.0%       52.8%       49.9%
 35kt / 24h       47.0%       52.8%       49.9%
 40kt / 24h       47.0%       50.4%       48.7%
 45kt / 36h       75.2%       43.5%       59.3%
 55kt / 36h       26.4%       28.8%       27.6%
 55kt / 48h       40.5%        9.7%       25.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 SH212026 260210 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     51.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  18.1  17.3  18.5  16.0  24.7  25.2  24.3  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  42.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  10.0  12.0   2.0  -4.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  N  F  F  N  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%