Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.7  17.0  16.5  19.5  23.4  25.5  15.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  21.0  34.7  48.3  55.0  50.0  46.0  40.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  23.0  44.0  55.0   7.0  21.0  16.0  24.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  47.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   6.0  -4.0   4.0   8.0  11.0   8.0  N  U  N  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       30.7%       44.7%
 25kt / 24h       43.0%       43.7%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       38.0%       43.7%       40.8%
 35kt / 24h       37.8%       43.7%       40.7%
 40kt / 24h       37.8%       37.8%       37.8%
 45kt / 36h       80.9%       38.3%       59.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 SH212026 260210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.7  17.0  16.5  19.5  23.4  25.5  15.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  47.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   6.0  -4.0   4.0   8.0  11.0   8.0  N  F  N  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%