Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  17.3  16.3  15.6  17.2  18.4  17.3  18.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  34.7  48.3  62.0  49.0  48.0  46.0  37.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0   0.0  23.0  52.0  11.0   1.0  27.0  51.0 VU  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  50.0  56.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  -4.0  -5.0   9.0  -0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.3%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       15.1%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       12.8%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       12.1%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       10.2%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%        5.5%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%        3.9%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 SH212026 260210 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  17.3  16.3  15.6  17.2  18.4  17.3  18.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  46.0  51.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  50.0  56.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0  -4.0  -5.0   9.0  -0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%