Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.1  12.9  14.8  22.5  21.1  15.1  19.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  55.0  66.0  59.0  48.0  48.0  43.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  17.0  19.0  27.0  13.0  25.0  50.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  54.0  51.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -8.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   4.0  -8.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%        0.6%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 SH212026 260211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     48.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.1  12.9  14.8  22.5  21.1  15.1  19.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  54.0  51.0  58.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -8.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   4.0  -8.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%