Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260211 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.40 46.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -40.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 13.9 15.5 19.8 19.8 21.2 18.2 22.7 F F F N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 56.0 58.0 51.0 46.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 29.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 105.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 19.0 27.0 9.0 19.0 31.0 57.0 4.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 50.0 44.0 43.0 48.0 45.0 51.0 58.0 VU U VU VU U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -9.0 -3.0 6.0 2.0 7.0 -1.0 -14.0 N F N N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 25.6% 1.0% 13.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 SH212026 260211 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.40 46.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -40.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 13.9 15.5 19.8 19.8 21.2 18.2 22.7 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 50.0 44.0 43.0 48.0 45.0 51.0 58.0 VF F VF VF F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -9.0 -3.0 6.0 2.0 7.0 -1.0 -14.0 N U N N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%