Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  13.7  17.7  18.4  20.9  12.1  22.5  20.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  51.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  30.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 134.6 123.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  39.0  29.0  39.0   6.0  69.0  66.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  46.0  56.0  59.0  65.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -2.0   6.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  -8.0 -10.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        2.2%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       38.2%        2.9%       20.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 SH212026 260211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  13.7  17.7  18.4  20.9  12.1  22.5  20.3  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  47.0  50.0  46.0  56.0  59.0  65.0  F VF VF  F VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -2.0   6.0   2.0  -0.0   2.0  -8.0 -10.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%