Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  17.4  18.3  19.3  21.0  20.2  21.5  26.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  46.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  37.0  27.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 115.1  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  29.0  39.0  20.0  32.0  76.0  17.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  62.0  72.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   7.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       20.4%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%       11.5%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%       10.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        8.8%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       15.1%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        5.3%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       18.4%       14.7%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        4.6%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h       20.7%       10.2%       15.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 SH212026 260211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.10     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  17.4  18.3  19.3  21.0  20.2  21.5  26.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  62.0  72.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   7.0   2.0  -0.0   3.0  -1.0  -9.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%