Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.7  20.0  21.2  13.0  23.0  16.4  31.4  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  40.0  30.0  17.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 105.1  90.5  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  19.0   9.0  11.0  38.0  26.0  71.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  57.0  65.0  74.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0 -12.0 -14.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  N  F VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.9%       25.5%       27.2%
 25kt / 24h       42.3%       61.2%       51.7%
 30kt / 24h       34.6%       55.8%       45.2%
 35kt / 24h       27.4%       55.8%       41.6%
 40kt / 24h       27.4%       55.8%       41.6%
 45kt / 36h       34.2%       60.4%       47.3%
 55kt / 36h       24.9%       43.8%       34.4%
 55kt / 48h       34.0%       30.0%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       16.3%       21.0%       18.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%       16.2%       12.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 SH212026 260212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     42.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.7  20.0  21.2  13.0  23.0  16.4  31.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  52.0  57.0  65.0  74.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0 -12.0 -14.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  N  U VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%