Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260212 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.90 41.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 18.8 21.2 19.0 22.3 23.0 24.9 29.5 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 32.0 26.0 14.0 7.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 94.6 83.6 75.5 62.7 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 9.0 11.0 25.0 41.0 23.0 81.0 98.0 U U U U N U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 59.0 53.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 2.0 -15.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.4% 50.3% 57.9% 25kt / 24h 65.3% 80.9% 73.1% 30kt / 24h 62.8% 80.9% 71.8% 35kt / 24h 60.1% 80.9% 70.5% 40kt / 24h 59.7% 80.9% 70.3% 45kt / 36h 44.9% 67.3% 56.1% 55kt / 36h 30.3% 53.0% 41.7% 55kt / 48h 27.1% 34.1% 30.6% 70kt / 48h 11.1% 20.0% 15.5% 65kt / 72h 6.2% 11.0% 8.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 SH212026 260212 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.90 41.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 18.8 21.2 19.0 22.3 23.0 24.9 29.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 59.0 53.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 2.0 -15.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N VU N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%