Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260212 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 40.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 19.3 17.6 15.5 24.6 19.2 37.0 38.6 F N F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 46.0 44.0 41.0 30.0 22.0 9.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3 80.1 65.5 58.0 49.3 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 2.0 17.0 18.0 5.0 48.0 52.0 73.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 56.0 68.0 62.0 47.0 VU VU U U U N N VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 26.0 38.0 N N N N F F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 74.5% 51.8% 63.1% 25kt / 24h 74.4% 83.4% 78.9% 30kt / 24h 74.4% 83.4% 78.9% 35kt / 24h 74.4% 83.4% 78.9% 40kt / 24h 74.4% 83.4% 78.9% 45kt / 36h 42.7% 48.9% 45.8% 55kt / 36h 28.3% 32.0% 30.2% 55kt / 48h 17.2% 20.4% 18.8% 70kt / 48h 5.9% 9.0% 7.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 SH212026 260212 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 40.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.4 19.3 17.6 15.5 24.6 19.2 37.0 38.6 N N N U N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 56.0 68.0 62.0 47.0 VF VF F F F N N VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -6.0 26.0 38.0 N N N N U U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%