Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     36.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  18.4  14.3  33.1  39.0  36.4  38.5  39.5  N  F  F  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  28.0  26.0  18.0  15.0  14.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  65.1  58.6  50.5  50.5  52.4  62.9  60.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  32.0  48.0  55.0  78.0  24.0  17.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0  -0.0   4.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%        6.1%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.8%        8.5%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%        5.4%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%        4.9%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%        4.7%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%        1.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 SH212026 260213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     36.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  18.4  14.3  33.1  39.0  36.4  38.5  39.5  N  N  U  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0  -0.0   4.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0  -3.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%