Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     35.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  13.8  28.1  37.3  34.9  44.2  34.4  37.2  N  F  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  26.0  23.0  19.0  14.0  16.0  16.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.3  55.7  47.4  47.4  47.4  49.4  47.4  27.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  56.0  43.0  60.0  73.0  28.0  40.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  62.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   7.0   9.0  12.0  -0.0  -5.0 -25.0  F  F  N  U  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.7%        7.3%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%        6.8%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        4.5%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%        4.1%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%        3.2%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 SH212026 260214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.10     35.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  13.8  28.1  37.3  34.9  44.2  34.4  37.2  N  U  N  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  62.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0   7.0   9.0  12.0  -0.0  -5.0 -25.0  U  U  N  F  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%