Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212026 260214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.90     36.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  28.0  36.0  38.6  39.0  41.7  31.8  27.8  F  N  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  19.0  18.0  16.0  18.0  18.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.7  47.4  47.4  47.4  47.4  57.9  57.9  34.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  43.0  60.0  86.0  45.0  42.0  25.0  55.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  -0.0  -1.0 -18.0 -24.0  F  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%        3.6%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        3.2%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        1.8%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        1.5%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        1.2%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 SH212026 260214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.90     36.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  28.0  36.0  38.6  39.0  41.7  31.8  27.8  U  N  F  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   7.0   6.0   5.0  -0.0  -1.0 -18.0 -24.0  U  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%