Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260214 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.60 37.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 30.2 30.2 37.9 32.6 39.3 35.5 37.4 N N N U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.4 62.4 62.4 64.4 72.9 58.5 42.7 33.6 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 72.0 66.0 46.0 37.0 13.0 64.0 47.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 55.0 55.0 60.0 57.0 N U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 11.0 14.0 6.0 -2.0 -13.0 -24.0 -45.0 U U U N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 SH212026 260214 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.60 37.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.