Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260215 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.70 38.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 32.1 36.6 40.1 34.3 37.6 35.0 40.3 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 14.0 14.0 16.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.5 55.5 57.4 57.4 51.6 36.1 27.2 2.8 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 66.0 47.0 24.0 36.0 39.0 58.0 48.0 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 58.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 56.0 54.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 14.0 4.0 1.0 -0.0 -17.0 -36.0 -48.0 U U N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 SH212026 260215 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.70 38.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.