Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260215 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.70 39.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 34.9 40.9 39.5 44.2 43.3 42.7 36.8 U U VU U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 16.0 16.0 18.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.5 62.4 70.7 72.9 60.5 44.3 25.4 7.8 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 42.0 32.0 45.0 31.0 12.0 31.0 14.0 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 39.0 46.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 -4.0 -21.0 -28.0 -20.0 U U N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 SH212026 260215 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.70 39.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 34.9 40.9 39.5 44.2 43.3 42.7 36.8 F F VF F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 39.0 46.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 11.0 7.0 5.0 -4.0 -21.0 -28.0 -20.0 F F N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 6.3% 3.2%