Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260215 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.20 41.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.3 39.7 42.3 51.4 37.5 34.1 27.1 44.8 VU U VU VU U U N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 67.9 65.7 51.6 39.3 19.2 2.8 -9.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 54.0 53.0 52.0 7.0 26.0 18.0 37.0 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 -17.0 -22.0 -14.0 -16.0 U N U N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 0.9% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 SH212026 260215 18UTC Storm Located at : -26.20 41.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.3 39.7 42.3 51.4 37.5 34.1 27.1 44.8 VF F VF VF F F N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 -17.0 -22.0 -14.0 -16.0 F N F N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.8% 12.2% 6.5%