Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260216 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.2 46.9 36.2 36.5 34.6 32.0 37.0 55.7 VU VU U U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 13.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.9 75.5 61.0 54.6 30.9 11.2 3.4 -3.2 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 29.0 33.0 33.0 39.0 34.0 38.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 52.0 48.0 46.0 47.0 55.0 60.0 U U U U VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 -9.0 -19.0 -24.0 -18.0 -12.0 -18.0 -4.0 N F VF VF VF F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.24 SH212026 260216 12UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.