Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260216 18UTC Storm Located at : -25.30 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.9 38.4 34.3 31.4 30.1 35.3 35.3 35.3 VU U U U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.5 71.2 56.5 52.2 27.8 11.4 11.4 11.4 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 26.0 30.0 40.0 59.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 F U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -30.0 -40.0 -33.0 -5.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 VF VF VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 SH212026 260216 18UTC Storm Located at : -25.30 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.