Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260217 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.40 44.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.6 35.5 30.8 28.5 30.4 35.1 37.4 59.2 VU U U N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.3 64.6 49.2 40.9 20.4 13.4 -1.0 -9.6 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 34.0 25.0 42.0 61.0 65.0 114.0 61.0 N N U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 54.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 62.0 64.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -41.0 -33.0 -42.0 -35.0 -20.0 -22.0 -8.0 3.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.78 SH212026 260217 00UTC Storm Located at : -26.40 44.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.