Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260217 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.60 43.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 32.0 28.1 27.4 37.8 35.3 56.2 79.2 U U N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.7 44.8 31.6 25.4 18.4 5.6 -7.5 -8.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 24.0 43.0 51.0 67.0 75.0 114.0 46.0 N U N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 55.0 57.0 40.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -49.0 -42.0 -21.0 -19.0 -5.0 27.0 115.0 VF VF VF VF VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.94 SH212026 260217 06UTC Storm Located at : -29.60 43.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.