Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212026 260217 12UTC Storm Located at : -30.00 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 28.2 29.0 31.4 35.1 42.0 60.9 87.2 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.2 45.9 37.8 25.4 18.4 4.0 -7.1 -6.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 47.0 27.0 67.0 72.0 137.0 54.0 50.0 N N U N N VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 58.0 57.0 39.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -12.0 -8.0 -19.0 -16.0 -7.0 -13.0 47.0 VF F F VF VF F VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.18 SH212026 260217 12UTC Storm Located at : -30.00 42.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.