Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222026 260220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.8  24.3  25.6  20.7  19.8  16.5  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  41.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 122.3 117.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  -3.0 -12.0   0.0 -19.0  39.0  28.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        6.7%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       37.1%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       24.2%       14.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       24.2%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       18.2%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       42.7%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       24.7%       14.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.0%       20.7%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%       14.8%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%       30.2%       22.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 SH222026 260220 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.70     75.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  24.8  24.3  25.6  20.7  19.8  16.5  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%