Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260220 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 75.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 29.5 28.9 27.6 24.1 17.8 19.8 26.2 U N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 41.0 40.0 37.0 37.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 N N N U U N U U Potential [kt] 114.6 117.0 117.0 117.0 112.3 112.3 107.9 103.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 13.0 33.0 23.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 56.0 U U N U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 48.0 50.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -4.0 -6.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 6.1% 5.9% 25kt / 24h 14.6% 30.3% 22.4% 30kt / 24h 8.6% 19.8% 14.2% 35kt / 24h 8.6% 19.8% 14.2% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 15.0% 8.1% 45kt / 36h 5.7% 31.3% 18.5% 55kt / 36h 2.8% 15.3% 9.0% 55kt / 48h 8.5% 12.8% 10.6% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 8.5% 5.3% 65kt / 72h 4.3% 14.2% 9.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.26 SH222026 260220 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.40 75.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 29.5 28.9 27.6 24.1 17.8 19.8 26.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 48.0 50.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -4.0 -6.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%