Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222026 260221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  24.0  24.5  22.2  20.5  18.5  16.3  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  35.0  31.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3 117.9 115.7 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -2.0 -36.0  21.0  58.0  15.0   1.0  21.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  56.0  52.0  58.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.1%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        8.8%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        3.9%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        6.3%        5.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 SH222026 260221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.00     74.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  24.0  24.5  22.2  20.5  18.5  16.3  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  56.0  52.0  58.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%