Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222026 260221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     73.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.1  21.7  21.6  20.7  14.5  26.7  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  33.0  34.0  36.0  35.0  30.0  28.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3 117.9 115.7 111.5 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -37.0  21.0  33.0  59.0   2.0  14.0  51.0  U VU  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0  -9.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.7%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.6%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%        4.5%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        2.9%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        5.5%        5.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 SH222026 260221 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     73.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  23.1  21.7  21.6  20.7  14.5  26.7  39.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0  -9.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%