Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260221 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 73.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 24.0 19.8 21.0 19.6 17.7 31.4 44.8 N N N N N F U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 33.0 36.0 35.0 29.0 26.0 23.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.3 122.3 115.7 117.9 111.5 107.4 107.4 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 20.0 23.0 48.0 -13.0 -7.0 45.0 96.0 U U U N U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 45.0 44.0 46.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 U U VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 -9.0 -19.0 -13.0 N N F N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 8.5% 4.9% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 3.3% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.7% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 2.3% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 10.7% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 55kt / 48h 10.5% 3.2% 6.8% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 2.4% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 SH222026 260221 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 73.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 24.0 19.8 21.0 19.6 17.7 31.4 44.8 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 45.0 44.0 46.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 F F VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 -9.0 -19.0 -13.0 N N U N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%