Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260221 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 19.8 21.0 19.7 18.1 23.3 36.8 58.6 N N N N F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 34.0 35.0 31.0 27.0 26.0 19.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.7 105.7 107.9 107.9 103.6 97.4 93.5 81.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 23.0 48.0 18.0 -8.0 12.0 78.0 83.0 U U N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 49.0 49.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 64.0 U VU U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -13.0 -18.0 N F N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 5.1% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 10.2% 23.1% 16.7% 30kt / 24h 6.8% 12.5% 9.6% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 12.3% 8.3% 40kt / 24h 4.3% 11.2% 7.8% 45kt / 36h 6.2% 24.9% 15.5% 55kt / 36h 4.2% 11.3% 7.8% 55kt / 48h 14.3% 5.7% 10.0% 70kt / 48h 5.0% 5.4% 5.2% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 3.0% 1.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 SH222026 260221 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 71.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 19.8 21.0 19.7 18.1 23.3 36.8 58.6 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 49.0 49.0 54.0 55.0 57.0 64.0 F VF F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -5.0 -9.0 -13.0 -18.0 N U N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%