Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260222 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 70.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.0 19.5 19.9 18.3 38.1 46.2 65.6 N N N N F U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 35.0 31.0 29.0 25.0 21.0 11.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.9 107.9 107.9 101.5 99.4 93.5 84.4 76.1 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 48.0 18.0 -13.0 -7.0 45.0 96.0 118.0 U N U U U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 59.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -4.0 -9.0 -18.0 -14.0 -3.0 F N N F F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 4.5% 13.1% 8.8% 30kt / 24h 3.0% 6.3% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 2.0% 5.6% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 5.3% 3.6% 45kt / 36h 3.3% 12.5% 7.9% 55kt / 36h 2.1% 4.4% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 2.1% 5.8% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.88 SH222026 260222 00UTC Storm Located at : -16.90 70.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.0 19.5 19.9 18.3 38.1 46.2 65.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 48.0 54.0 59.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -4.0 -9.0 -18.0 -14.0 -3.0 U N N U U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%