Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260222 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 23.6 23.5 18.2 24.8 37.4 56.8 57.3 N N N F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 32.0 29.0 27.0 24.0 19.0 8.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.9 107.9 101.5 103.6 95.5 89.8 81.0 71.5 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 22.0 12.0 0.0 29.0 74.0 81.0 121.0 U U U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 52.0 55.0 64.0 61.0 VU U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 -30.0 -24.0 N N F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 3.4% 10.8% 7.1% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 5.2% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 4.6% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 2.2% 4.1% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 2.1% 10.0% 6.1% 55kt / 36h 1.4% 3.4% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 6.0% 1.5% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.80 SH222026 260222 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 23.6 23.5 18.2 24.8 37.4 56.8 57.3 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 52.0 55.0 64.0 61.0 VF F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -9.0 -11.0 -24.0 -30.0 -24.0 N N U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%