Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260222 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.60 69.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 23.2 19.2 18.4 31.1 43.8 56.3 56.0 N N N F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 13.0 6.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.5 96.5 94.4 94.4 88.5 84.8 71.1 60.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 11.0 0.0 4.0 30.0 80.0 119.0 92.0 U U U U N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 48.0 53.0 60.0 56.0 VU VU VU VU U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -9.0 -10.0 -14.0 -15.0 -16.0 -19.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 14.4% 10.0% 30kt / 24h 3.5% 8.5% 6.0% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 7.9% 5.1% 40kt / 24h 2.2% 6.3% 4.3% 45kt / 36h 1.9% 10.0% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 1.1% 3.7% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 4.0% 1.1% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 SH222026 260222 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.60 69.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 23.2 19.2 18.4 31.1 43.8 56.3 56.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 48.0 53.0 60.0 56.0 VF VF VF VF F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -9.0 -10.0 -14.0 -15.0 -16.0 -19.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%