Rapid Intensification Guidance SH222026 260222 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 19.6 19.5 28.1 37.2 56.9 54.6 63.4 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 16.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.5 93.6 89.4 85.5 79.8 71.0 55.8 42.0 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 0.0 23.0 38.0 68.0 71.0 108.0 41.0 U U U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 47.0 50.0 55.0 62.0 60.0 51.0 U VU VU U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -9.0 -11.0 -14.0 -16.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.7% 7.5% 8.6% 25kt / 24h 10.5% 20.1% 15.3% 30kt / 24h 7.1% 13.3% 10.2% 35kt / 24h 5.2% 13.3% 9.2% 40kt / 24h 3.4% 10.5% 6.9% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 12.8% 7.8% 55kt / 36h 1.6% 5.0% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 0.1% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 SH222026 260222 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.80 68.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.9 19.6 19.5 28.1 37.2 56.9 54.6 63.4 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 47.0 50.0 55.0 62.0 60.0 51.0 F VF VF F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -9.0 -11.0 -14.0 -16.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%