Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222026 260223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.7  27.3  28.2  39.4  48.3  50.7  58.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  23.0  20.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  79.4  75.5  71.6  64.4  56.1  45.8  32.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  41.0  32.0  26.0  77.0  92.0  85.0  55.0  U  N  N  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0 -12.0 -14.0 -15.0 -16.0  -7.0 -15.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.7%       16.6%       23.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       24.6%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       19.0%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h       15.5%       19.0%       17.2%
 40kt / 24h       15.5%       16.3%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       11.3%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        4.3%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        0.6%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 SH222026 260223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.