Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222026 260223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  30.0  40.5  44.1  55.7  64.3  60.3  51.9  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  16.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.5  28.5  24.8  19.4  11.1  -5.8 -18.3 -24.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  30.0  61.0  74.0  85.0  63.0  38.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  46.0  50.0  53.0  44.0  41.0  35.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -21.0 -16.0 -17.0 -11.0  -7.0 -11.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.1%        5.9%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 SH222026 260223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     65.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.