Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260227 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 167.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.7 9.9 16.6 20.0 27.0 47.7 74.3 91.9 F F F N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 27.0 26.0 28.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 119.3 110.1 103.6 81.0 53.2 29.7 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 77.0 99.0 124.0 116.0 156.0 138.0 65.0 F N F F F VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 84.0 85.0 84.0 85.0 79.0 72.0 58.0 F F F F F F N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -8.0 4.0 19.0 70.0 N N N F F N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 23.7% 32.0% 27.9% 25kt / 24h 58.6% 78.0% 68.3% 30kt / 24h 40.3% 74.2% 57.3% 35kt / 24h 34.1% 74.2% 54.2% 40kt / 24h 20.1% 74.2% 47.2% 45kt / 36h 37.8% 74.0% 55.9% 55kt / 36h 23.1% 59.4% 41.2% 55kt / 48h 17.7% 6.6% 12.2% 70kt / 48h 6.6% 21.4% 14.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 SH232026 260227 00UTC Storm Located at : -18.60 167.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.7 9.9 16.6 20.0 27.0 47.7 74.3 91.9 U U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 84.0 85.0 84.0 85.0 79.0 72.0 58.0 U U U U U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -8.0 4.0 19.0 70.0 N N N U U N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%