Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260227 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 168.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 28.6 23.5 26.9 30.2 59.2 65.4 97.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 26.0 23.0 20.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.3 100.1 102.3 93.6 79.8 55.8 33.7 18.4 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 65.0 77.0 68.0 129.0 146.0 90.0 4.0 N N N N F VF F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 75.0 67.0 64.0 50.0 VF F F F F N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -22.0 -12.0 43.0 83.0 N F F F VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 27.6% 20.2% 23.9% 25kt / 24h 41.0% 53.7% 47.4% 30kt / 24h 28.8% 45.9% 37.3% 35kt / 24h 28.8% 45.9% 37.3% 40kt / 24h 12.6% 44.0% 28.3% 45kt / 36h 14.5% 38.5% 26.5% 55kt / 36h 6.8% 20.3% 13.5% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.14 SH232026 260227 06UTC Storm Located at : -19.40 168.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 28.6 23.5 26.9 30.2 59.2 65.4 97.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 75.0 67.0 64.0 50.0 VU U U U U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -22.0 -12.0 43.0 83.0 N U U U VU U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%