Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260227 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 169.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 89.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 28.3 24.9 27.2 45.1 60.1 69.2 56.4 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 23.0 20.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.3 97.3 88.6 90.7 66.0 38.2 19.2 3.2 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 99.0 96.0 79.0 105.0 186.0 126.0 99.0 56.0 F F N F VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 85.0 86.0 82.0 73.0 73.0 76.0 F F F F F N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -10.0 -9.0 -13.0 -14.0 -24.0 14.0 48.0 N F F VF VF VF U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 35.5% 22.6% 29.1% 25kt / 24h 44.7% 55.2% 49.9% 30kt / 24h 30.7% 49.9% 40.3% 35kt / 24h 30.7% 49.9% 40.3% 40kt / 24h 16.0% 46.6% 31.3% 45kt / 36h 13.6% 27.1% 20.3% 55kt / 36h 4.7% 11.4% 8.1% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 SH232026 260227 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 169.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.4 28.3 24.9 27.2 45.1 60.1 69.2 56.4 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 85.0 86.0 82.0 73.0 73.0 76.0 U U U U U N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -10.0 -9.0 -13.0 -14.0 -24.0 14.0 48.0 N U U VU VU VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%