Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260227 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.60 169.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 27.8 29.1 35.3 32.8 42.6 105.9 139.4 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 25.0 20.0 16.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.3 97.3 97.3 90.7 74.8 44.2 18.4 -3.0 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 96.0 79.0 105.0 148.0 126.0 68.0 46.0 55.0 F N F VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 76.0 66.0 60.0 62.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -13.0 -12.0 10.0 37.0 69.0 216.0 F F VF F U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 3.6% 4.1% 25kt / 24h 9.9% 16.4% 13.1% 30kt / 24h 4.8% 9.3% 7.0% 35kt / 24h 3.0% 9.3% 6.1% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 8.0% 4.9% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.16 SH232026 260227 18UTC Storm Located at : -19.60 169.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 27.8 29.1 35.3 32.8 42.6 105.9 139.4 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 85.0 84.0 76.0 66.0 60.0 62.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -13.0 -12.0 10.0 37.0 69.0 216.0 U U VU U F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%