Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260228 00UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 170.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 32.3 38.7 41.9 48.8 100.5 140.9 136.5 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 16.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.6 83.6 77.4 69.8 39.2 14.2 -7.7 -19.6 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 134.0 133.0 187.0 120.0 56.0 50.0 117.0 N VF VF VF F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 66.0 57.0 55.0 59.0 F F F F N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -16.0 -24.0 -35.0 12.0 45.0 94.0 47.0 F VF VF VF U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.8% 4.6% 7.2% 25kt / 24h 9.4% 11.5% 10.5% 30kt / 24h 4.2% 6.6% 5.4% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 6.6% 5.0% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 4.7% 3.2% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 SH232026 260228 00UTC Storm Located at : -20.40 170.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 32.3 38.7 41.9 48.8 100.5 140.9 136.5 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 66.0 57.0 55.0 59.0 U U U U N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -16.0 -24.0 -35.0 12.0 45.0 94.0 47.0 U VU VU VU F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%