Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232026 260228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80    171.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  35.4  39.8  54.4  52.5  43.5  48.6  95.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  77.4  61.0  53.0  27.7   9.1  -6.5 -16.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0 150.0 165.0 152.0 175.0 142.0  89.0  13.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  77.0  72.0  65.0  59.0  48.0  34.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0  -4.0  -0.0 -54.0-140.0 -84.0 165.0  F  F  F  N VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        4.8%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        6.8%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        3.3%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 SH232026 260228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.80    171.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.