Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260228 12UTC Storm Located at : -21.10 173.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 39.3 50.1 57.0 73.8 117.7 117.7 117.7 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.4 69.8 61.0 45.8 19.1 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 150.0 132.0 128.0 64.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 F VF F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 78.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 F F N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -30.0 -26.0 -26.0 27.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 VF VF VF VF VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 SH232026 260228 12UTC Storm Located at : -21.10 173.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.