Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232026 260228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10    175.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  43.2  55.4  59.1  65.0  78.7 103.8  63.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.8  63.0  49.2  37.7  15.2  -2.9 -10.9 -12.3  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   153.0 157.0 150.0 172.0 145.0 144.0  57.0  69.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  49.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -0.0  -2.0 -52.0-115.0-196.0-138.0  47.0  F  N  N VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 SH232026 260228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.10    175.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.