Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232026 260301 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00    177.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.9  59.6  54.6  69.2  97.9 131.1 115.3  55.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  49.2  37.7  28.3   9.1  -6.6 -12.2 -12.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 126.0  95.0  78.0  50.0  86.0  81.0   0.0 VF  F  F  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  50.0  36.0  41.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -20.0  -3.0   9.0  52.0  52.0   5.0  39.0 VF VF  N  U VU VU  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 SH232026 260301 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.00    177.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.