Rapid Intensification Guidance SH232026 260301 06UTC Storm Located at : -25.70 179.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.5 58.9 64.9 79.8 70.8 116.8 89.5 89.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 43.2 32.8 23.4 8.7 -5.1 -11.7 -11.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 120.0 119.0 72.0 29.0 6.0 -37.0 -37.0 F F F N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 57.0 54.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 30.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -30.0 -18.0 42.0 78.0 273.0 320.0 320.0 VF VF VF VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.28 SH232026 260301 06UTC Storm Located at : -25.70 179.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.