Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232026 260301 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.40    181.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.6  71.0  71.3  66.9  75.2  75.2  75.2  75.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.2  37.8  28.4  19.6  10.5  10.5  10.5  10.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0 132.0 112.0  85.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -16.0  -1.0  40.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0 VF VF  N VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.30

 SH232026 260301 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.40    181.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.