Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260304 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    150.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  36.9  34.8  37.6  21.5  15.3  13.5  21.1  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  26.0  42.1  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  63.0  76.0  95.0  96.0  66.0  44.0  80.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        4.5%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        5.4%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%        4.3%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%       12.9%       14.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 SH242026 260304 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40    150.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  36.9  34.8  37.6  21.5  15.3  13.5  21.1  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%