Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH242026 260304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  29.3  33.7  28.3  20.9  17.1   9.9  26.6  U  N  U  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  93.0  58.0  55.0  46.0  22.0  40.0  46.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  72.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.2%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        4.7%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        3.8%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        7.9%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 SH242026 260304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  29.3  33.7  28.3  20.9  17.1   9.9  26.6  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  72.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%