Rapid Intensification Guidance SH242026 260304 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 21.5 20.3 21.6 19.7 20.3 32.3 34.3 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 40.0 11.0 15.0 16.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 115.7 103.5 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 81.0 80.0 96.0 103.0 105.0 99.0 91.0 F N N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 71.0 71.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 87.0 88.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -0.0 6.0 10.0 -1.0 -11.0 -17.0 N N N N U N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 4.3% 12.6% 8.4% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 4.0% 3.1% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 3.9% 2.4% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 3.9% 2.4% 45kt / 36h 7.6% 13.5% 10.6% 55kt / 36h 3.0% 3.4% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 18.4% 10.0% 14.2% 70kt / 48h 6.7% 4.1% 5.4% 65kt / 72h 10.9% 7.9% 9.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 SH242026 260304 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.10 149.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.6 21.5 20.3 21.6 19.7 20.3 32.3 34.3 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 71.0 71.0 75.0 75.0 78.0 87.0 88.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -0.0 6.0 10.0 -1.0 -11.0 -17.0 N N N N F N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%